Ugh...what a crazy war

MiddleAgeSubie

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Glad to see Australia on board with help for Ukraine. To be crystal clear, I take no pleasure in the death of any Russian soldiers. But Putin must be stopped.

This BS war is particularly fitting for Bruce Dickinson lyrics:
"As the reasons for the carnage cut their meat and lick the gravy
We oil the jaws of the war machine and feed it with our babies"
 
"But extremely smart, cunning and clever."

Was! 20 years of success based on cold calculation, small steps, sawing discord everywhere, etc.

Now, I don't think so. There is much in this move that is different. This is a gamble. Big move. I totally expected a quick annexation of the separatist regions. But this is very different. And the initial move was clearly a failure. He attacked with far too little and got nothing on Night 1. Looks like Kyiv made it through a fourth night. He likely believes much of the BS he spawns. Perhaps he thought the Ukrainians would embrace him or at least put up with an occupation..

I still expect him to succeed in the short term, but I don't see a way for him to win this in the long term. And with every 24 hr that Kyiv holds, morale on both sides will keep moving against the Russians. For all the suppression and disinformation, once the news and the rumors and the doubt start spreading among relatives of the Russian soldiers....

The sanctions are real for many of the Russians with money. And few Russians would embrace an attack on Ukraine. The news will spread in Russia as well no matter what the gov does.

There is hope that he may not get much even in the short term. And I am happy that he has already been able to help US/EU/OZ/Japan/SKorea get back closer.
 
It is said that Putin`s stolen billions are held in the west. So in my naive way of thinking it is possible that some very clever hackers could find out where. Not at all easy though as I would think he, no doubt, has it well hidden.
I think that the only way he will be stopped is either direct action, ie assassination or such, by those around him or a huge population uprising which will result in the deaths of millions. Not many of those who lived in the USSR like him very much. When I traversed Russia by the trans Siberian in 2013 I met a few well educated, ie spoke excellent English, people who were concerned where he was taking Russia.
However if he uses his nasty thermobarics then perhaps NATO may act in response accordingly and then we`ll all be in the brown cacky stuff.
He certainly won`t be doing much overseas traveling in the future except to Belarus, China and North Korea.
A reasonable outcome from all this would be for Putin to be locked up forever, ( with Trump as well perhaps), Ukraine to be left in peace and the two breakaways and Crimea reinstated into Ukraine. Also the perpetrators of MH17 be finally brought to their well deserved justice.
My simple thoughts anyway.
 
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"Usually" topics such as this are off-limits but will let it slide provided the discussion remains reasonable.
I am heartbroken for the people of Ukraine and the suffering they will endure and while the west is offering support with defensive weaponry I think it's too late - should've been supplied weeks ago when Russian troops began shifting towards the borders.
@scalman view will be interesting!
 
I am still trying to come to grips with why that tank swerved to run over a civilian car. :evil:

Whether there armed Ukranians inside or not I don't know, if no armed people in the car then that tank driver needs to be drawn and quartered, forget the hanging.
 
^Agree as it was just an elderly man; fortunately they got him out.
 
Yes, thanks, Kevin, let's indeed keep this civilized and reasonable. I agree on Scalman.

But I know more about eastern Europe than you think :) I have zero problem catching 90+% of spoken TV/formal Russian and I get through Ukrainian as well.

I have followed closely the local sources in the local languages and the US study of war institute.

I am pretty confident that:

1/ Putin believed his narrative which is why:
2/ He in fact is not targeting any civilians. If he wanted to, this would have been over already. Even the US causes collateral damage. It is clear to me that the images advertised as hits on civilian targets are either collateral damage, plain mistakes, or some local commanders taking the initiative. Harming civilians was clearly not the intention.
3/ Consequently, Attack 1 was very light.
4/ And because the Ukrainians were not waiting with flowers and cakes, as apparently Putin had hoped, it failed badly.
5/ Massive regrouping, repositioning, and resupply over the last couple days signals a much more powerful wave.
6/ But Russian morale is surely going through the floor as 18-20-year olds realize what they were placed into. Every burnt armored vehicle they see is a knife in the heart.
7/ Correspondingly, Ukrainian morale is through the roof.

I believe Ukraine needs a compromise with substantial concessions but I fear all the support, which I personally do like and I donated for orphaned kids myself, is making them maximalists.

This is a very dangerous situation because Putin cannot win this in the long term but he cannot lose in the short term either--and there is the current Russian doctrine on tactical nuclear weapons to consider, too.

Every war causes immense suffering, but this one is dangerous on a global scale.

Hope you are all guys doing well. We have offroaded 4 Sundays in a row so cannot complain. Generally, we offroaded a ton in 2017-21 and have a good start in 2022.
 
G`Day MAS,
Generally agree with your analysis. Bad mad Vlad certainly believes his own rhetoric and is extremely dangerous because of this. He has seen/read/experienced what it is like to cause MASS casualities so probably desn`t fear, as much as we do, the ramifications of a nuclear war and it would not surprise me if he did use them on Ukraine and the nearest ex USSR countries in a limited manner. Then I fear it is on for young and old.
There is also the "Face" aspect of not winning. He may not be Asian but definitely has some of Chinggis Khan`s genetics.
 
I live like 350km from belarus and same from russia. Its sad ..and scary for sure when you so close... And when you live so close to large army base where there are lots foreign soldiers now too from US , germany .... Others
But i hope when all world will show that they against that bs they will stop or it should be some inside like revolution to change that.
Country cant survive just on its own if they will close all road air and ground and close money from outside ,country just cant survive for long. I try not to think about worse. We just so close to all that...
Thing is that russia never expected itll be that hard they plan was take over in 2 days. So that plan failed. They fighting back.
But its not that simple too... They have conflicts now going for last 8 yrs just it was never this bad. Nothing ever just so simple.
 
Imagine camping with the bloke. Steal your snag off the Barbi when you weren't looking then throw rocks at the neighbor's tent, blaming them. Truly though, visiting all that hurt & fear on those Mum's & Kids, how could you stand up straight?
 
Last analysis I read is that the column is in fact 17 miles and that the extra pictures show more of the column, not a longer column. Still quite the column.
 
Not looking good! I want Putin to step across NATO borders, he has to be stopped. Maybe someone will assassinate him; fingers crossed!
 
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